The Dolphins are offically at the Crossroads right now

[Downunder Dolphan]

This article sums it up pretty neatly as to the mess we have got ourselves into since the start of the last rebuild, leading to now:

https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/why-this-dolphins-draft-is-more-important-than-others-01jraqgxnkhg

We have accumulated so many serious holes that we need to hit a double six at the Craps table at the draft. We need a Chuck Noll Vintage 1974 draft to stay relevant. After we pay for picks, there is close to no leftover money to go after anyone else of serious worth.

A lot of talent that we drafted has vacated the building in the last two years. Players and coaches. A fair bit that has remained (or been brought in) have partied hard on their big money contract extensions.

This draft will say a lot. Preseason will say a lot more. Then, if this team starts to fail during the season, it's all over. Blow everything up, because there's little to nothing left of this complete failure worth salvaging.

[CF DolFan]

And the biggest issue is Grier has a history of drafting people with a great "potential" upside but not people who can typically come in and play right away. This draft will have to bring in people who can contribute right away. I don't have much faith.

[Pappy13]

I'm not sure the situation is as dire as you're making it out to be, but I do think we need to have a good draft to compete for the division. A mediocre or poor draft will most likely mean another year where at best we are scrambling for a wild card spot. The thing that worries me is that in the past they have always been focused on getting the skill positions and have spent little to no effort on working on the lines and that's where this team is sorely lacking now. So either there's a big change in that philosophy this year or they will have failed to really do what needs to be done regardless of whom they choose.

Fortunately I think there are some signs that perhaps this year will be different. I do thing we are fairly well set at the skill positions for the most part if everyone gets healthy and maybe Grier and McDaniel will be willing to spend some picks on the lines this year. I think the question then is do they have the ability to really judge that sort of talent and coach it up or can all they really evaluate and coach is speed and quickness.

Even after the draft I think they need to make a serious commitment to conditioning. I feel like there's a been a huge drop off in commitment to conditioning not just at Miami but throughout the league. Plenty of time is spent on getting guys to be stronger, run faster etc, but there's not enough time spent on how to prepare their bodies for a 17 game schedule. Nutrition, rest, flexibility, etc. Injuries are unavoidable, but they can be mitigated with proper conditioning and I don't think enough work is being done in that area throughout the NFL.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

The Dolphins "crossroads" is deciding the priority of the draft/off-season: is it primarily about this season even at the expense of future seasons or is it about thinking long term. 

[CF DolFan]

I'm not sure the situation is as dire as you're making it out to be, but I do think we need to have a good draft to compete for the division.

I don't think there is any way we compete for the division. We need a starting DT and possibly a backup, Starting CB, Starting Safety, 1-2 Starting guards. There is no way to address all of our issues in the draft. Drafting starters after the first round is not Grier's forte. He likes projects to work on.

At this point I honestly think we may struggle with New England this year. Competing with Buffalo is beyond a long shot. We've had better teams in recent years and still didn't compete with them. 

[Spider-Dan]

The Dolphins are better off today than Washington was a year ago.  The doomsaying is unwarranted.

[Downunder Dolphan]

The Dolphins are better off today than Washington was a year ago.

The Redskins before last season were a clean slate, with a large salary cap buffer, and in line for the Offense Rookie of The Year. There was no toxic baggage. There wasn't the same overpriced, overrated Primadonna lunatics dictating the direction of the team - they got an experienced winner in Bobby Wagner to actually lead that defense. There were no overpaid mercenaries. Everyone bought into making the team better over making themselves richer and partying more.

Our team is an utter shitshow in comparison. About a third of our starters from two years ago, when we actually had some talent across most positions and depth, have walked out because of salary cap mismanagement. Our salary cap situation isn't even on life support anymore, it's dead. Of our four highest payed players, right now the QB has got fat again, and our WR1 continues to find more distractions and trouble off-field. The majority of the team are now Journeymen on one year contracts, rookies, and very low paid extras. Nobody is here to win a title. They are here to party and get a pay check. There is no discipline and no care.

We are closer to the messy end of the Philbin and Gase eras, than to the where Washington was at the start of last season.

[Downunder Dolphan]

The Dolphins "crossroads" is deciding the priority of the draft/off-season: is it primarily about this season even at the expense of future seasons or is it about thinking long term. 

Next season or long term, it doesn't really matter in this regard - we are so thin at almost every position that Grier has to nail this draft, hit it out of the park, just to have any relevance in the AFC, now and the next few seasons. If he screws the pooch, we are in for a whole world of pain, even if him and McDaniel aren't even around to wear the consequences after the end of the year.

They gambled we were going to win it all two years ago - trying the Rams "fuck them picks approach" mid-rebuild (along with mortgaging everything to the hilt), but it missed by miles. We only started paying the price for that disaster last season. Unless this draft is a 1974 Chuck Noll miracle with a whole lot of Pro Bowl quality starters on effectively minimum wage, the next one will be a lot worse. This team is a mess. It's soft with no real leadership. When it goes sour, it's going to happen in a real hurry, and really hard.

[Spider-Dan]

The Redskins before last season were a clean slate, with a large salary cap buffer, and in line for the Offense Rookie of The Year.

The Commanders one year ago were a 4-13 team that had just shipped off their #2 overall pick - the guy they took instead of Tua, Herbert, Love, or Hurts - for a pack of peanuts.  Jayden Daniels was not yet on the team, and "figure out who the OROY will be, then draft that guy" is not exactly what I would call a strategy; if WSH had been picking first instead of second, Caleb Williams would be a Commander.

The idea that a team which hadn't had a winning season in 7 years was "better off" than MIA is right now is stretching recency bias to the breaking point.  Every year, some team comes out of nowhere to have a miracle season, and yet NFL fans still have this bizarre belief that they are multiple years away from contention.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

The Commanders one year ago were a 4-13 team that had just shipped off their #2 overall pick - the guy they took instead of Tua, Herbert, Love, or Hurts - for a pack of peanuts.  Jayden Daniels was not yet on the team, and "figure out who the OROY will be, then draft that guy" is not exactly what I would call a strategy; if WSH had been picking first instead of second, Caleb Williams would be a Commander.

The idea that a team which hadn't had a winning season in 7 years was "better off" than MIA is right now is stretching recency bias to the breaking point.  Every year, some team comes out of nowhere to have a miracle season, and yet NFL fans still have this bizarre belief that they are multiple years away from contention.

It's not about how many games you won last season, its about fielding a team.  Dolphins will assemble 22 players that in theory could be competitive*IF* not a single player suffers any injuries letting naive fans the belief that the season was bad luck.

[masterfins]

And the biggest issue is Grier has a history of drafting people with a great "potential" upside but not people who can typically come in and play right away. This draft will have to bring in people who can contribute right away. I don't have much faith.

I was thinking about this the other day when I went back and looked at our top draft picks the last couple years.  Some of them barely see the field.  And I wonder if they were bad picks or are we just falling back into the Joe Philbin realm of just sticking rookies on the practice squad and not giving them an opportunity to show whether they can play.  Some players just need actual full speed playing time to learn, and if they are stuck on the practice roster they will never get it.  IMO if you draft a guy in the top three rounds then he needs to be starting to gain experience, even if he's not the best player at the position, otherwise he may never grow into the player you expect him to be.

[Downunder Dolphan]

I was thinking about this the other day when I went back and looked at our top draft picks the last couple years.  Some of them barely see the field.  And I wonder if they were bad picks or are we just falling back into the Joe Philbin realm of just sticking rookies on the practice squad and not giving them an opportunity to show whether they can play.  Some players just need actual full speed playing time to learn, and if they are stuck on the practice roster they will never get it.  IMO if you draft a guy in the top three rounds then he needs to be starting to gain experience, even if he's not the best player at the position, otherwise he may never grow into the player you expect him to be.

Given that the pattern is so inconsistent, I'd lean to the ones that didn't work being bad picks.

Or in some cases, just bad picks for us - the talent's there, but they just don't work with our coaches, environment, etc.

[CF DolFan]

It's not about how many games you won last season, its about fielding a team.  Dolphins will assemble 22 players that in theory could be competitive*IF* not a single player suffers any injuries letting naive fans the belief that the season was bad luck.

I completely agree with you Hoodie. It's a sad day when the Patriot's fan is the voice of reason on the Dolphins board. hahaha.

Given that the pattern is so inconsistent, I'd lean to the ones that didn't work being bad picks.

Or in some cases, just bad picks for us - the talent's there, but they just don't work with our coaches, environment, etc.

It's definitely bad picks because he doesn't' typically draft proven players but ones he "expects" will have a high upside. He has proven he isn't very good at it. 

[Sibster]

Rumors are spreading that the Dolphins aren't happy with Jalen Ramsey and may trade him during or after the draft.

[Downunder Dolphan]

Rumors are spreading that the Dolphins aren't happy with Jalen Ramsey and may trade him during or after the draft.

I just saw that too:

https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/dolphins-ramsey-to-explore-exit-strategy-01jrwkfpt6vt

Unless we have a miracle draft, Weaver is going to have to be even more of a magician than last year to come up with something decent.